A new presidential administration usually means a new direction for the economy. But this year is somewhat different. With Donald Trump serving a second, non-consecutive term, the sign and graphics industry likely will see more of the economic policies that we experienced from 2017 until COVID. That’s why we expect the main economic focus of the second Trump administration to be on regulatory reform, tax cuts and tariffs.
The new administration may also change some Biden-era regulations that recently took effect, or are scheduled to take effect in January, including:
- Joint employment, which changed the criteria for a joint employer relationship and could have impacted franchisors/franchisees or potentially the installer/sign company relationships
- Increased eligibility for overtime, which raised the salary threshold for those eligible for overtime, from $35,568 to $58,656 on January 1.
- Independent contractor rules, which redefined when companies can consider workers as independent; and
- Worker walkaround, which allowed third-parties like unions and community activists, to join OSHA on workplace inspections.
Some of these Biden-era regulations have been tied up in federal courts over the last year, and the incoming administration may just let others wither on the vine. However, some of the regulations from the previous administration may be allowed to proceed, albeit with some changes.
President Trump nominated Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer to head up the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), an important federal agency that oversees the Occupational Safety & Health Administration (OSHA) and which enacts and enforces many workplace regulations that affect the sign and graphics industry. Rep. Chavez-Deremer was one of just three House Republicans who supported the PRO Act, which would have made it easier for unions to organize in private businesses. It’s still highly probable the Trump DOL will issue far fewer regulations than the previous administration, instead relying on the general duty clause which mandates that employers simply “provide a workplace that is free from recognized hazards that could cause death or serious physical harm.”
Also expect an increased emphasis on trade and vocational schools, along with apprenticeship programs – which could help the sign and graphics industry and other manufacturing sectors find and keep much-needed skilled workers.
Other executive branch agencies may have an impact, such as the Department of Energy, the Small Business Administration, the Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency. They too will also have different priorities starting in January 2025.
During the presidential campaign, candidate Trump promised he would consider imposing tariffs of up to 60 percent on products from China and 10 percent on products from other countries. How much of this is campaign hyperbole remains to be seen, but his first term did include unprecedented tariffs on Chinese aluminum and metals, key components of signs. Many of these tariffs were continued under the Biden administration, giving some industries time to adapt their supply chains and costs, but the prospect of newer and larger tariffs has many businesses concerned.
Meanwhile, in the new 119th session of Congress, Republicans maintained extremely slim control of the U.S. House of Representatives and won the U.S. Senate for the first time since 2020. With Republicans in charge in both houses, chances look good for an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, including bonus depreciation and capital expensing provisions, keeping the corporate tax rate at 21 percent, and maintaining pass-through deduction used by the many sign companies that file as S-corporations.
In addition, the GOP Congress may use the Congressional Review Act to repeal some existing federal regulations. With 53 Senate seats, the Republicans can pass bills that are budget-related (taxes, regulations, etc) with a simple majority. The Republican Senate will probably also confirm federal judges who are inclined to agree with recent U.S. Supreme Court cases advancing deregulation.
There are some significant issues facing President Trump that he didn’t have to deal with his first time around, such as the prospect of relatively high interest rates and inflation, economic uncertainty exacerbated by conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and whether A.I. and other forms of automation will force many Americans out of the workforce.
ISA remains at work at the federal level—in addition to our ongoing work at local and state levels—and will monitor these changes and keep you informed.
Is there a federal issue that you would like more information on? Contact me at [email protected] and let me know what you’re watching that could impact your business.
